TTF Holds Gains From Extended Norway Works and Warm Weather Demand

TTF steadies after another surge higher yesterday as tight supply concerns continue to drive the trend up from a low of 22.85€/MWh on 2 June up to a high of 40.25€/MWh yesterday. Supports come from extended Norway maintenance and warm weather in Europe boosting demand with upside risk from stronger competition for LNG supplies despite the high storage levels.

• TTF JUL 23 up 1% at 38.68€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 1.8% at 54€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 2.2% at 52.98€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe increasing this week and maintaining above normal throughout the two week forecast period.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are unchanged from yesterday at 259.8mcm/d as some maintenance comes to an end but outages at Nyhamna gas plant and the Ormen Lange and Aasta Hansteen fields were this week extended until 15 July.
• Total European LNG sendout has increased back up to over 400mcm/d this week with concerns eased by the return of Hammerfest LNG export terminal yesterday. US LNG exports are still low due to Sabine Pass LNG maintenance while the outage at Montoir LNG continues with works also at Dragon LNG today.
• Total European total storage was up to 72.86% full on 13 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 55.9% and on track to refill despite gas injections about 17% below average since April.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.6mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 66.1mcm/d.