TTF Impact of Dip in Norwegian Supply Offset by Higher LNG Supplies

TTF front month is seeing some support today from lower Norwegian pipeline supplies, but upside is limited by rising LNG sendout and warm weather.

• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe for today have been revised down to 340.2 from 344.7mcm/d earlier with unplanned process problems at Gullfaks adding to the ongoing planned outage at Kasto.
• European LNG sendout was up to 346mcm/d on Apr. 4 after falling as low as 264mcm/d over last weekend but still below an average of 421mcm/d in the first week of April last year.
• The number of US LNG export cargoes increased last week to 25 from 22 the previous week with a total vessel capacity of 89bcf according to the EIA based on Bloomberg shipping data.
• Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals fell 3.0% (0.4 Bcf/d) from last week, averaging 12.5bcf/d driven by a drop in deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• US LNG exports are more profitable to Asia over Europe throughout the summer period according to BNEF. The US netback to Asia for May is 6.96$/mmbtu and to Europe is 6.09$/mmbtu.
  • TTF MAY 24 up 0.6% at 26.36€/MWh
  • TTF Q3 24 up 0.7% at 27.1€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 1.3% at 31.55€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 1.6% at 30.3€/MWh