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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NATURAL GAS
TTF second month implied volatility has fallen to the lowest since May at 75% with futures prices in a bearish trend since the start of November.
- The decline reflects the comfortable supplies this winter with muted demand, a warm weather forecast into the start of February, strong renewables output and high LNG volumes at sea.
- Natural gas demand in Europe was 17% below the 2019-21 average in December according to Bruegel data.
- The decline in front month TTF has paused this week with small gains today supported by some delayed LNG arrivals from Qatar due to Red Sea diversions.
- The healthy near term supplies are weighing on the front of the curve with the Feb 2024 - Sum 24 down to as low as 1.15€/MWh.
- The Sum 24 – Win 24 spread has edged back up to -5.1€/MWh after falling as wide as -5.2€/MWh yesterday. The Sum24-Sum25 spread is steadying today after widening to around -2.4€/MWh yesterday.
- TTF FEB 24 up 2.1% at 27.81€/MWh
- TTF SUM 24 up 2.1% at 28.9€/MWh
- TTF WIN 24 up 1.5% at 33.99€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 up 1.2% at 31.05€/MWh
Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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