TTF Opens Higher Amid Peak Norwegian Supply Outages

TTF front month opens higher today with support from large outages from the Norwegian maintenance period while the ongoing concern of Australian strikes adds to global LNG supply risks. Low demand and high natural gas storage levels are helping to offset the impact of the tight supplies.

• TTF OCT 23 up 2.3% at 36.45€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 2% at 49.47€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1% at 51.68€/MWh
• Employees at the Gorgon and Wheatstone downstream LNG facilities could begin industrial action on 7 Sep if no agreement is reached this week.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have fallen to the lowest since at least 2015 with today nominated at 129.8mcm/d. Unplanned outages at Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin and extended works at Oseberg have added to the key outages at Troll and Kollsnes.
• LNG sendout to Europe has averaged about 340mcm/d in the last few days with import flows holding just below levels seen this time last year.
• European natural gas injections have slowed in the last week but storage has edged up to 93.08% full on a 2 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 81.4%.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to gradually increase in the coming days and remain above normal throughout the two week forecast.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 41.7mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara have in the last few days risen to the highest since May at 75.9mcm/d today.