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TTF Pulls Back as Supply Risks Offset by High Storage

NATGAS

TTF front month pulls back from the highest since Feb.5 at 29.745€/MWh yesterday with cooler weather early next week expected to be short lived enabling limited call on end of season storage withdrawals. The previous price rise since March 14 is expected to discourage further interest from price sensitive buyers in Asia.

  • Prices had rallied with support from a dip in Norwegian and LNG supplies to Europe and risks from an escalation in attacks on Russia energy infrastructure.
  • European gas storage was up at 59.67% full on Mar. 17 according to GIE with net withdrawal rates falling as low as 361GWh/d on Mar. 16. The seasonal five year average storage level is 42.13% and last year stocks were 55.67% full.
  • Net storage withdrawals have averaged 7.7% below normal in the week to Mar. 17 with average rates in the week of 1,474GWh/d compared to the previous five year average of about 1,596GWh/d.
  • Storage in Germany is down to 168.9Wh (66.3% full), Italy to 112.2TWh (57.0%), Netherlands to 77.2TWh (54.2%), Austria to 73.5TWh (75.0%) and France to 52.0TWh (38.7%).
  • Second month TTF implied volatility has edge slightly higher to around 63% after falling to the lowest since June 2021 at 56.6% last week.
    • TTF APR 24 down 2.5% at 28.11€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down 2.5% at 28.2€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 1.7% at 31.83€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1% at 29.98€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg / GIE

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