TTF Pulls Back as Warm Weather Eases Tight Market Concerns

Front month TTF is pulling back after volatile trading yesterday saw front month swing between 48.1€/MWh and 53.4€/MWh with warmer weather balanced against supply disruption and potential higher natural gas demand due to French strikes.

• TTF APR 23 down -4.5% at 47.37€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -4.4% at 48.09€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -3.6% at 54.94€/MWh
• The current weather forecast shows temperatures in NW and central Europe shifting from near normal this week to above normal temperatures at the weekend. The return of milder weather and healthy wind generation has eased pressure on European LNG supplies.
• French strikes and stormy weather in the UK have caused LNG delays and diversions with cargoes diverting to other European locations. Despite the short term disruption ship tracking yesterday suggests a strong supply of cargoes are expected into NW European terminals before the end of the month.
• European gas in storage is at 56.50% according to GIE data from 12 Mar compared to the five year average of 36.2%. The net withdrawal rate is back near normal after rising during the cooler spell in northern Europe last week.
• Norwegian imports are today nominated down at 325mcm/d due to maintenance at the Kristin field this week. Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today nominated at 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are 74.7mcm/d.