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TTF Rallies Amid Drop in Norway Supply and Colder Next Week

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is trading higher with support from curtailed Norwegian supplies and the risk of higher demand from cooler weather next week and amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

    • TTF MAR 24 up 1.7% at 29.8€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.9% at 30.22€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.1% at 34.82€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1.3% at 32.3€/MWh
  • US continued strikes against Houthis in Yemen with 36 strikes on Saturday. US President Biden said the US could strike targets in Iran if needed, but the US won’t be dragged into a long engagement in the region.
  • US National Security Advisor Sullivan said that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas wasn’t to be expected soon.
  • Nominations for Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down at 289.5mcm/d today after falling yesterday after unplanned outages at the Troll field due to a compressor failure and Nyhamna processing plant after a power supply failure.
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are expected to turn colder next week after holding above normal until about Feb 12.
  • European natural gas storage was at 69.14% full on Feb 3 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 55.7%. Net withdrawal rates have remained below the previous five year average since Jan 20.
  • European LNG sendout was holding below levels seen last year at 312mcm/d on Feb 3 and just below an average of about 340mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.3mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is at 53.0mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was on Friday at 247k.
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