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TTF Rallies As Supply Risks Remain Despite Warm Weather

NATURAL GAS

TTF rallies after opening down on the day as supply risks remain despite the ongoing warm temperatures and low heating demand.

  • Equinor CEO yesterday said the European gas market is likely to remain tight this year and is still exposed to supply disruptions with lower Russian supplies and the need to refill storage during the summer.
  • The fall in TTF has driven spreads to favour flows to Asia over Europe with total European supplies falling from record levels up to 529mcm/d in mid December to average around 400mcm/d in the first few days this year. The JKM-TTF spread is at 5.1$/mmbtu today with Feb US netback to Europe down to 17.55$/mmbtu compared to 22.67$/mmbtu to Asia.
  • The Russian gas transit through Ukraine has also dipped in the last couple of days from around 42.4mcm/d on Tuesday to 35.5mcm/d today.
    • TTF FEB 23 up 6.6% at 77.22€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 23 up 6.1% at 79.5€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 5.7% at 84€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 4.4% at 73.25€/MWh
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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