TTF Rallies on Cooler Weather and LNG Risk from Asia Buying

European gas is gaining ground today with the declining trend halted this week by a cooler end to the winter heating season in Europe and increased LNG buying interest in Asia.

• TTF MAR 23 up 2.5% at 52.05€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 up 3.1% at 52.8€/MWh
• The current weather forecast shows temperatures in NW and central Europe falling below normal in the coming days and likely to stay below for the remainder of the two week forecast period.
• Net LNG import flows into Europe were up to 437mcm/d on 21 Feb with flows supported by global gas spreads. The US netbacks and JKM-TTF spread show a small increase in the premium for LNG supply to Europe over Asia despite the buying interest from countries such as India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
• Norwegian supplies are today nominated back up to 331.4mcm/d with the end to works at Kvitebjorn and Russian gas supplies flowing through Ukraine are unchanged at 41.4mcm/d.
• European gas in storage is at 62.98% according to GIE data from 22 Feb compared to the five year average of 41.9% with the current withdrawal rate near normal.