TTF Recovers Ground but Still Weak Amid Muted Gas Demand

TTF edges slightly higher but is still down on the day after falling to the lowest since Jul 31 at a low of 26.6€/MWh earlier as steady supplies and muted demand due to warm weather and high wind power generation forecasts weigh on near term prices.

• The TTF Feb 2024 - Sum 24 is falling further down to -0.85€/MWh reflecting the downside pressure on the front of the forward curve amid ample supplies for the remaining of this winter.
• The comfortable near term supply is pulling Summer 24 prices lower as the Sum 24 – Win 24 spread holds around -5.0€/MWh and the Sum24-Sum25 spread remains at -2.3€/MWh.
• Nordic wind power generation surged to a record and output from Germany is on course to reach a new high according to Bloomberg. Wind output in UK is about 50% of the total energy mix with gas down at 20%.
• LNG shipping disruption continues due to Red Sea attacks but have so far provided little upside pressure to prices. Feedgas flows to US export terminals have started to recover after disruption last week due to severe cold weather in the US.
• Falling LNG prices could encourage interest from some buyers in Asia although remain under pressure with strong inventories in North Asia.
  • TTF FEB 24 down -3.6% at 27.4€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 down -2.7% at 28.25€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down -1.9% at 33.3€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 down -2.4% at 30.39€/MWh