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TTF Reverses Yesterday's Gains Amid Warm Weather

NATURAL GAS

European TTF falls reverses gains from yesterday with steady market fundamentals and warm weather easing early heating season demand despite concern for the supply risks from rising Middle East tensions.

    • TTF NOV 23 down -5.6% at 48€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -4% at 54.5€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -3.3% at 52.85€/MWh
  • The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures are expected throughout most of the two week forecast period although could drift back towards normal at the end of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are down at 294.4mcm/d due to a planned outage at Oseberg adding to unplanned outages at Asgard and SEGAL fields.
  • European natural gas storage continues to slowly build up to the highest in over ten years at 98.12% full on 17 Oct according to GIE data.
  • Total European LNG sendout was slightly lower at 319mcm/d on 17 Oct according to Bloomberg after rising to 358mcm/d the previous day.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today estimated at 72.95mcm/d today.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes drifted back near normal at 250k contracts yesterday.

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