TTF Rises on Cold Weather and Middle East Tensions

TTF gains with the forecast of cold weather in Europe and with risks from Middle East escalations within the Red Sea and after a terrorist attack near the grave site of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in the central Iranian city of Kerman.

• TTF FEB 24 up 3.1% at 33.8€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 3.5% at 33.5€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 2.6% at 37.9€/MWh
• TTF SUM 25 up 2.4% at 33.95€/MWh
• The US and its allies have warned the Houthis that there will be consequences if they don’t stop attacking ships in the Red Sea. The UN said that 18 companies have now rerouted ships.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to drop in the coming days to fall below normal from around Jan 6. The cold is then expected through the remaining two week forecast period.
• European natural gas storage is still above normal at 86.07% full on Jan 2 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 73.5% with near normal withdrawals at the start of the year.
• European LNG sendout was below levels seen this time last year at 337mcm/d on Jan 2 amid soft demand and high gas storage in the region.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated slightly down today at 345.3mcm/d with an unplanned outage at Aasta Hansteen due to process problems.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are down to the lowest since Oct at 32.75mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday up to 209k.