TTF Rises to Highest Since Jan 16 Amid Tighter LNG Supply Risks

Front month TTF has climbed to its highest level since Jan 16 supported by forecasts for cooler weather towards the end of the two week forecast and the risks of wider geopolitical tensions on supply.

• TTF MAR 24 up 3.6% at 30.64€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 3.4% at 31.15€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 2% at 35.25€/MWh
• TTF SUM 25 up 1.8% at 32.05€/MWh
• Markets are waiting for the US response following the attack on its troops stationed in Jordan over the weekend. US President Biden said that he did not want a war with Iran and that he had decided how to respond without giving further details.
• Temperature in NW and central Europe are still expected to remain mild through the middle of February but above normal temperatures in the coming week could ease back to near normal later in the two week forecast.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated slightly higher today up to 348.3mcm/d and in line with the average throughout January.
• Net storage withdrawals remain below normal as European natural gas storage holds well above normal at 71.13% full on Jan 29 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 58.1%.
• European LNG sendout increased back up to 358mcm/d on Jan 29 from as low as 298mcm/d the previous day but remains below the Jan average and levels seen this time last year.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today at the highest since Dec at 62.7mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was yesterday up to 345k.