TTF Steady After Net Gain Last Week on Hot Weather and Supply Risks

TTF front month is holding near the previous close after falling back in late trading on Friday to lose some of the gains seen earlier in the week. The heat wave in southern Europe and the risk to fuel supplies from Russia contributed to a net price gain on the week up to a high of 30.76€/MWh on Friday. There has been no indication of any impact on Russia gas flows despite rising hostilities.

• TTF AUG 23 up 0.5% at 28.3€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -0.1% at 48.42€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.1% at 50.65€/MWh
• The latest two week weather forecast shows a slight dip in southern European temperatures later this week but holding about normal throughout the outlook. Temperatures in NW and central Europe are mostly at or just below normal.
• Pipeline imports from Norway to Europe are nominated back up to the highest since early April at 337.4mcm/d today following the seasonal maintenance over the last couple of months. Another period of Norwegian maintenance is scheduled for late August and September according to Gassco.
• LNG sendout to Europe dipped slightly over the weekend back to around 325mcm/d on 22 July from as high as 382mcm/d mid last week.
• Total European gas in store is up to 83.36% full on 22 July according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 68.24%. Injection rates have averaged above normal over the last week after seeing mostly below normal since April.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 40.2mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 57.6mcm/d.