TTF Steady Amid Middle East Risks and Troll Supply Cut

TTF is holding steady today with increasing geopolitical risks and curtailed Norwegian pipeline supplies set against bearish pressure from mild weather and high storage.

• TTF MAR 24 up 0.1% at 28.23€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.2% at 28.72€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 down -0.1% at 32.7€/MWh
• The situation in the Middle East deteriorated with the US killing an Iranian-backed militant leader in Baghdad and Israel appearing to reject a ceasefire deal or a pause in the fighting in Gaza.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 321.1mcm/d with the Troll capacity reduction extended until at least Friday due to a compressor failure.
• Mild temperatures are expected across most of Europe as the chance of cooler weather back near to normal has been pushed back into the second half of February.
• European natural gas storage at 68.29% full on Feb 6 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 54.3% with net withdrawal rates remaining low this week.
• European LNG sendout was up again to 346mcm/d on Feb 6 but still below the average of 379mcm/d seen during January.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 41.8mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 219k yesterday.