TTF Steady With Mixed Weather Forecast and Stable Supplies

TTF has opened just below previous close levels with support from cold weather early next week offset by high storage and steady supplies. French strikes continue to add LNG supply uncertainty and longer term concerns remain for competition for LNG supplies from Asia with a potential demand recovery in China.

• TTF APR 23 down -1.1% at 42.7€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -0.6% at 43.75€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -0.3% at 51.75€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows temperatures in NW and central Europe falling below normal at the start of next week but rebounding to at or above normal into April. Wind generation is expected to dip slightly into next week from the current strong output.
• Total European LNG sendout has dipped slightly back to around 407mcm/d on 22 March from 461mcm/d on 20 March. French industrial action has caused cargo diversions within Europe with Dunkerque LNG halted yesterday and with the three Elengy LNG terminals offline until 28 March.
• EU are proposing to extend consumption reduction targets beyond March. The regulator yesterday said Germany will need to cut gas use to avoid an energy crunch next winter.
• European gas in storage is unchanged from yesterday at 55.62% according to GIE data from 22 Mar compared to the five year average of 34.36%.
• Norwegian imports are today nominated at 325.60mcm/d with output down slightly due to planned maintenance at several facilities. Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today nominated at 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is at 67.2mcm/d.