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TTF Still Under Bearish Pressure Despite Upside Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF has reversed the initial gains seen earlier today with healthy near term supplies and high storage offsetting the risks from higher demand due to cooler weather in January and rising Middle East tensions.

  • European natural gas storage is holding well above normal at 86.51% full on Dec 31 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 73.9% with below normal withdrawals throughout much of December.
  • Average withdrawals rates were over 17% below the previous five year average during December and averaged just 884GWh/d in the week to Dec 31 compared to the 2018-2022 average for the period of around 2,100GWh/d.
  • The TTF curve remains relatively flat until the end of the summer with reduced energy security fears weighing on the balance of winter.
  • Sum 24 – Win 24 spread is today around -5.05€/MWh reflecting the supply risks for next winter despite the bearish near term prices. The Sum24-Sum25 spread is down slightly to -1.25€/MWh.
    • TTF FEB 24 down -1.2% at 31.95€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.5% at 31.8€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.4% at 36.65€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down -1% at 32.95€/MWh


Source: GIE / Bloomberg

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