TTF Weighs Supply Risks Against Low Demand

TTF front month has opened just above the previous close level with Norwegian outages this week weighed against low demand and high storage levels.

• TTF NOV 23 down -0.3% at 41.75€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 0.2% at 47.6€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.1% at 46.34€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up at 276.5mcm/d although outages are expected to increase again in the next couple of days before capacity returns later this week.
• European natural gas storage is up to 95.42% full on 30 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 87.4%.

• LNG sendout to Europe was at 267mcm/d on 30 Sep and roughly in line with the average seen over the last couple of weeks. Flows are below levels seen this time last year with warm weather limiting demand at the start of the winter season while LNG volumes at sea continue to increase.
• The latest weather forecast is still showing above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the next two weeks although with a dip slightly cooler later this week and with the risk of near normal towards the middle of October.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady at 41.2mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are down to 54.9/d today.