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TURKEY: Annual Inflation Rate Reaches Highest Level Since November 2022

TURKEY
  • Turkey’s consumer prices rose to 75.45% y/y (Est: +74.80%) in May versus +69.8% in April, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Month-on-month, prices rose 3.37% (Est: +3.00%) compared to +3.18% the month prior. Core consumer prices rose 74.98% y/y (Est: +74.45%; Prior: +75.81%).
  • The trajectory of prices with a peak in May follows the path broadly mapped out by the central bank. Policymakers anticipate Turkey’s inflation will end the year at 38%, though the central bank have also warned that a significant deviation from the projected outlook and expectations could prompt another rate hike.
  • Commenting on the data, Finance Minister Simsek said the transition period in the anti-inflation fight has been completed, with Turkey now entering a disinflation period. He added that a permanent slowdown in inflation is likely to start in June, with annual inflation expected to slow below 50% at end of 3Q.
  • Separately, Turkey’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4 in May from 49.3 in April, marking the lowest reading since December 2023. New Orders fell to 47.0 from 48.1, the 11th consecutive month of contraction.
  • Trade Minister Bolat will announce preliminary trade data for May at 09:00BST/11:00 local time. There are no other major economic releases scheduled for the remainder of the week. Simsek will speak on NTV at 13:00BST/15:00 local time today.
     
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