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TURKEY: CBRT Widely Expected to Leave One-Week Repo Rate Unchanged

TURKEY
  • The CBRT rate decision is the key event of the day (12:00BST/14:00 local time), where the central bank is unanimously expected to keep the one-week repo rate unchanged at 50%. The most recent inflation print has prompted some analysts to shift back expectations of when the first rate cut will come. Of the views we have seen, all are expecting an easing cycle to commence in Q1-2025. Our full preview can be found here.
  • Home sales in Turkey rose 37.3% y/y in September versus +9.9% in August, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. That marks the highest for the series since May 2022.
  • Speaking in an interview to Dunya, Turkish economist Selva Demiralp stated that if the seasonally adjusted monthly inflation figure falls to 1.5 percent and a decisive decrease is observed in sectoral inflation expectations in the post-September period, there may be an interest rate cut in January. “But I do not see the possibility of these preconditions coming true very high,” she added.
  • The comments mirror those given in an interview to MNI in September. “It’s also possible they do prefer the first quarter,” she said then, noting that political pressure for a cut would mount as the economy slows.
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  • The CBRT rate decision is the key event of the day (12:00BST/14:00 local time), where the central bank is unanimously expected to keep the one-week repo rate unchanged at 50%. The most recent inflation print has prompted some analysts to shift back expectations of when the first rate cut will come. Of the views we have seen, all are expecting an easing cycle to commence in Q1-2025. Our full preview can be found here.
  • Home sales in Turkey rose 37.3% y/y in September versus +9.9% in August, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. That marks the highest for the series since May 2022.
  • Speaking in an interview to Dunya, Turkish economist Selva Demiralp stated that if the seasonally adjusted monthly inflation figure falls to 1.5 percent and a decisive decrease is observed in sectoral inflation expectations in the post-September period, there may be an interest rate cut in January. “But I do not see the possibility of these preconditions coming true very high,” she added.
  • The comments mirror those given in an interview to MNI in September. “It’s also possible they do prefer the first quarter,” she said then, noting that political pressure for a cut would mount as the economy slows.