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TURKEY: JP Morgan Maintain Year-End Inflation Forecast of 43.5%

TURKEY
  • JP Morgan note that headline inflation likely peaked in May, while the TRY performed well on the back of de-dollarization among Turkish residents and foreign inflows. They continue to see signs of slowdown in the economic activity and expect monthly inflation to come down in summer months thanks to core goods prices driven by real TRY appreciation and the slowdown in the economic activity.
  • Specifically, JP Morgan expect headline inflation to fall sharply towards 50% by August and 43.5% by year-end. They maintain their end-2024 inflation forecast of 43.5% and end-2025 inflation forecast of 25.2%.
  • However, they add that disinflation in services prices has been slower than expectations in the last three months, and therefore now see upside risks on their forecasts. As the CBRT is sensitive to the inflation outlook, JPM also see upside risks to their year-end policy rate forecast of 45%.
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