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Turkey Risk Premia Diverge from EM Peers SA & Russia

TURKEY


5Y CDS - CEEMEA High-beta

  • Risk premia in Turkey (blue) seen declining faster than regional peers SA (white) & Russia (red)
  • Positive local story on CBRT policy normalisation helping soothe investor nerves against an uncertain 1Q21 virus backdrop
  • 300 level on Turkey 5Y CDS may prove sticky if inflation proves harder to anchor than expected
  • Political concerns in Russia over a confrontational Biden Administration may keep a sanctions premium baked into Russian assets
  • Fiscal, Political & virus risks for Jan/Feb may support upside in SA CDS in 1Q21
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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