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TURKEY: Uncertainty Over Inflation Expectations Could Delay Rate Cuts

TURKEY
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • Dunya run a piece citing views from local economists following the release of Istanbul retail inflation yesterday. They note that the data indicates high price pressures, though the large differences across different expectation measures deepens confusion among market participants. This uncertainty makes it difficult to make a clear prediction about how the government and the CBRT will shape policy, and could potentially delay rate cuts.
  • One economist pointed to the possibility of political intervention, which “cannot be completely ruled out due to past experiences.” Another noted that inconsistencies in calculation models cause confidence in inflation data to decrease, adding that rate cut expectations could be postponed if the monthly figure comes in at around 3%. National inflation data will cross tomorrow morning, with consensus looking for a decline in the headline figure from +51.97% Y/Y to +48.30%.
  • Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power Co. is in talks with Turkey about investing in the country’s green-energy industry, Bloomberg report citing Turkish officials familiar with the negotiations. Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz told a local news channel over the weekend that a “Saudi-owned company” had expressed interest in investing $5bn in energy and other sectors.
  • Trade Minister Omer Bolat will speak at 09:00BST/11:00 local time on preliminary foreign trade data for September. Meanwhile, the central bank publishes monthly data on FX assets & liabilities of non-financial companies.
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  • Dunya run a piece citing views from local economists following the release of Istanbul retail inflation yesterday. They note that the data indicates high price pressures, though the large differences across different expectation measures deepens confusion among market participants. This uncertainty makes it difficult to make a clear prediction about how the government and the CBRT will shape policy, and could potentially delay rate cuts.
  • One economist pointed to the possibility of political intervention, which “cannot be completely ruled out due to past experiences.” Another noted that inconsistencies in calculation models cause confidence in inflation data to decrease, adding that rate cut expectations could be postponed if the monthly figure comes in at around 3%. National inflation data will cross tomorrow morning, with consensus looking for a decline in the headline figure from +51.97% Y/Y to +48.30%.
  • Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power Co. is in talks with Turkey about investing in the country’s green-energy industry, Bloomberg report citing Turkish officials familiar with the negotiations. Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz told a local news channel over the weekend that a “Saudi-owned company” had expressed interest in investing $5bn in energy and other sectors.
  • Trade Minister Omer Bolat will speak at 09:00BST/11:00 local time on preliminary foreign trade data for September. Meanwhile, the central bank publishes monthly data on FX assets & liabilities of non-financial companies.