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Turkey’s USD Bonds Erase Gains Following Recent Rally

TURKEY
Turkey’s USD bonds have pared gains from the rally which began on July 28. The front end of the curve leads losses, with yields on 3Y bonds up 14bps at the time of typing. Overall, USD bond yields trade 12-14bps higher this morning, moving against the broader trend of global FI.
  • Turkey’s 5y CDS spread remains close to recent lows, though has continued its modest recovery, following significant volatility earlier this year over the election period. The measure may become of greater market importance going forward after VP Yilmaz said last week that he expects Turkish CDS spreads to decline ahead of the announcement of the government’s mid-term economic plan in September, potentially signalling that officials see this indicator as a measure of success of government policy. However, it is worth noting that the indicator is following the downward trend of wider EM economies (e.g., Hungary, South Africa) as risk premia fades following banking crisis concerns in early-2023.
  • Meanwhile, the rally in the Borsa Istanbul Index has continued. The index trades 0.86% in the green at the time of typing, taking gains over the past 7 days to 9.4%.
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