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Twist Flattening As Rate Expectations Firm

CANADA
  • GoCs have twist flattened today, in part with what’s been seen in the US but also on commentary from BOC Governor Macklem, as renewed hiking expectations lift short end yields with the haven play driving a rally further out.
  • In answer to a specific question, Macklem didn’t rule out the option of a 50bp hike if the economic outlook warranted it, similar to Powell both yesterday and today, but wouldn’t be drawn further.
  • 2YY up 2bps and 10Yy down 3bps sees a further flattening in 2s10s to 30bps, the flattest since Sep-2020 but still 50bps above the sustained lows of an inverted -20bps in Aug-Sep 2019.
  • QT was confirmed to be passive full roll off but with no information on timing just yet - https://marketnews.com/boc-s-early-qt-plans-no-timing-just-yet
  • USDCAD sits 0.4% higher today in a combination of broader USD strength and oil softening from extremely high levels. This sees it nearly claws back yesterday's delayed decline after the BOC hiked 25bps to 0.5%.

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