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Twist Flattening For GoCs With GDP Tomorrow

CANADA
  • GoCs have flattened through the session, with 2s10s down 4bps at 15bps, whilst inversion in nearer-term rates grows with BAX futures little changed through 2022 but with BAZ2-BAZ3 now -18bps.
  • The front-end underperformance to Tsys sees the 2Y Can-US differential widen back out to +9bps but remain below post-FOMC peaks of +20bps.
  • With growth concerns rising even though activity has been reasonably solid, particular focus will be on Canadian GDP tomorrow (consensus a tenth higher than the StatCan flash indicated at 0.3% M/M in April and attention on the May flash) along with knock-on impacts from US personal incomes/spending and the core PCE deflator.
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