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Twist Flattening On Larger Hike Expectations

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys has twist flattened this morning as further increases in rate hike expectations have weighed on the longer-end.
  • 2YY +1.5bps at 2.154%, 5YY -0.1bps at 2.398%, 10YY -0.7bps at 2.365%, 30YY -1.3bps at 2.525%.
  • 5s10s remains modestly inverted at -3bps, having first dipped into negative territory after last week’s FOMC.
  • With a return of below average volumes, TYM2 sits 5+ ticks lower at 122-24, the low end of this week’s range. Support is seen at 122-12 (Mar 23 low) whilst resistance remains 123-25+ (Mar 16 low and recent breakout level).
  • Tsy Sec Yellen speaks on CNBC at 0800ET.
  • Fedspeak: Williams with his first post-FOMC thoughts on monetary policy at 1000ET plus renewed speaking from Daly (2024), Barkin (2024) and Waller (Governor).
  • Data: Focus is likely on the finalised U.Mich consumer survey for March and in particular the 5-10y measure, to see if it has indeed seen two months at 3.0% having peaked at 3.1% in Jan.

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