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Twist Flatter With Flash PMIs and 2Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Treasuries operate off best levels, with little to hang the intraday cheapening on.
  • The curve has twist flattened on the day with softer than expected Eurozone PMIs and a further tightening in credit standards in Q3 having greater spillover on the longer end. Cash benchmarks trade from 3.5bp cheaper (2Y) to 1bp richer (30Y).
  • 2s10s trades at -22.5bps (-3bp), off yesterday’s fresh YtD high of -10.6bps.
  • TYZ3 at 106-10+ is back close to Asia Pac lows of 106-08+ having pulled away from a session high of 106-22 in European hours. For the most part though it consolidates yesterday’s sizeable rally, with that consolidation based on another overnight session with solid volumes (already 465k). Resistance seen at 107-05+ (20-day EMA) and support at 105-10+ (Oct 19 low).
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg, Oct (0830ET), S&P Global US PMIs, Oct prelim (0945ET), Richmond Fed mfg, Oct (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $51B 2Y Note auction (91282CJE2) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $75B 42D CMB bill auction – 1130ET
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