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Twist Flatter With PCE Report Firmly In Focus

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have twist flattened, with the front end (2bp cheaper) seemingly spurred on by the ECB hawks’ turn after yesterday’s late dovish musings, whilst the long end firms (up to 1bp richer).
  • TYH4 at 111-12+ (+ 02+) sits at the low end of the day’s range but consolidates yesterday’s push higher, with volumes a little lower than recent averages at 270k. The overnight high of 111-18 came close to resistance at 111-20 (20-day EMA) whilst the bear cycle is seen still in play with support at 110-26 (Jan 19 low).
  • Data is firmly in focus today, in particular core PCE inflation with potential for the six-month run rate to have slipped a little further below 2% annualized in December. The FOMC firmly in media blackout and a Friday limiting Tsy issuance should further add to the focus on the report.
  • Data: PCE and income Dec (0830ET), Pending home sales Dec (1000ET), Kansas City Fed services Jan (1100ET)
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