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Twist Steepening As PCE Tracking And Higher Trump Odds Clash

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have steadily pared the losses seen with the late open for a Japanese holiday, following EGBs.
  • The front-end is through Friday’s highs seen after the initial hawkish reaction to US PPI beats was more than offset by PCE implications (analyst core PCE estimates have narrowed in on ~0.165% M/M for June after a particularly soft 0.08% in May).
  • The long end meanwhile holds a net cheaper impetus after former President Trump’s odds of election victory have stepped higher after the assassination attempt at the weekend.
  • The combination sees cash yields between 1.5bp lower (2s) and 4bps higher (30s).
  • As noted earlier, 2s10s and 5s30s have hit multi-month highs although remain within ytd highs.
  • TYU4 meanwhile sits at an intraday high of 111-04 with solid volumes already breaching 300k. It remains off initial resistance at Friday’s 111-08+ after which lies 111-13 (Mar 25 high) as the bull cycle remains in play.
  • Ahead, Fed Chair Powell’s Rubenstein interview is firmly in focus for his last appearance before the FOMC blackout.
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