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Twist Steepening As Wait For US PPI/U.Mich

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a twist steepening having stabilised an overnight rally at the front end but reversed it further out the curve. China CPI falling to an eight month low was in line with expectations with relatively few other drivers and little clear spillover from the ECB TLTRO announcement.
  • Volumes, despite picking up more recently, remain below average ahead of US PPI and the preliminary U.Mich survey with markets otherwise focused on a heavy week of central banks and data ahead.
  • 2YY -2.6bps at 4.282%, 5YY -1.4bps at 3.692%, 10YY +0.5bps at 3.487% and 30YY +2.2bps at 3.453%. 2s10s nudge back the other side of -80bps off recent fresh multi-decade lows.
  • TYH3 trades 2+ ticks lower at 114-17. The technical uptrend is seen remaining intact -- resistance seen at 115-06+ (Dec 7 high) and a key resistance a little higher at 115-14 (50% of the Aug – Oct downleg) whilst support is seen at 113-21+.
  • Data: PPI Nov (0830ET), U.Mich consumer survey Dec prelim (1000ET), Wholesale trades/inventories Oct/final (1000ET)
  • No issuance.
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