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Twist Steepening Awaiting Fedspeak

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys hold a milder version of Friday’s twist steepening, leaving the major benchmarks running 3bp richer to 1.5bp cheaper, pivoting around 7s. The 2-/10-Year curve is off session highs of -84bps but holds a move through post-payrolls highs.
  • Fedspeak headlines the docket after relatively few appearances last week, with VC Supervision Barr starting proceedings off before three ’24 voters. It might help frame the debate but focus is ultimately on Wednesday’s CPI release ahead of the Jul 26 FOMC decision in an increasingly data dependent world.
  • 2YY -3.1bp at 4.915%, 5YY -3.0bp at 4.330%, 10YY +0.0bp at 4.062%, 30YY +1.1bp at 4.057%.
  • TYU3 trades 2 ticks lower at 110-19+ just off session highs of 110-21+ but well within Friday’s range (with both high and lows seen after payrolls). The bear threat remains present with support at 110-05 (Jul 6 low), whilst volumes are on the low side at a cumulative 230k.
  • Fedspeak: Barr (1000ET, text), Daly (1100ET, no text), Mester (1100ET, text), Bostic (1200ET, no text)
  • Data: Wholesale trade sales/inventories May/May F (1000ET), Consumer credit (1500ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 13W, $58B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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