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Twist Steeper Ahead Of Stacked Docket

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have twist steepened with most of the curve trading modestly richer with only 20s and onwards cheaper. The front-end outperforms, with 2Y yields at ~4.825% for back close to yesterday’s lows early in the FOMC press conference before some retracement into the close.
  • Today sees a heavy docket with important data releases after Powell’s focus on data dependency, the ECB decision and press conference, sizeable earnings releases both pre- and after-market, 7Y supply after small tails for 2s and 5s earlier this morning plus further hefty bill issuance. That’s all before the BoJ decision overnight.
  • 2YY -2.7bp at 4.825%, 5YY -2.3bp at 4.094%, 10YY -0.4bp at 3.865% and 30YY +1.1bp at 3.946%.
  • TYU3 trades 3+ ticks higher at 112-01 on typical but still subdued volumes of ~250k ahead of a stacked docket. An earlier high of 112-07 remained within resistance at 112-17+ (Jul 24 high) whilst lifting further off support at 111-17+ (Jul 25 low).
  • Data: GDP/PCE Q2 1st release (0830ET), Prelim durable goods Jun (0830ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Trade balance Jun (0830ET), Wholesale and retail inventories Jun prelim/Jun (0830ET), Pending home sales Jun (1000ET), 1100ET Kansas City Fed mfg Jul (1100ET).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $35B 7Y Note auction (91282CHR5) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 4W, $60B 8W Bill auctions – 1130ET
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