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EQUITIES

Fall lower led by the cash open.

USDCAD TECHS

Remains Vulnerable

NATURAL GAS

TTF Falls Further as Low Demand Eases Supply Pressure

SILVER TECHS

Trend Needle Points North

AUDUSD TECHS

Northbound

GILTS

Opening calls

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Two changes to the guidance leading to FI rally / EUR selloff

ECB
  • Regarding rates, the ECB is noting two things here: first, that we are much closer to neutral than previously - it says it has made "substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation"
  • And second it no longer references "several meetings" of further hikes when, just that it "expects to raise interest rates further".
  • These changes are in addition to the policy decisions on TLTROs and remuneration of reserves. And they are driving Euribor futures and Bunds higher and the euro lower.
  • The September guidance was: "This major step frontloads the transition from the prevailing highly accommodative level of policy rates towards levels that will ensure the timely return of inflation to the ECB’s 2% medium-term target.... over the next several meetings the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further"
  • The guidance today was: "With this third major policy rate increase in a row, the Governing Council has made substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The Governing Council took today’s decision, and expects to raise interest rates further"

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