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U.Mich Inflation Expectations At Odds With Climbing Market Measures

US DATA
  • Continuing its recent run of revisions, U.Mich consumer inflation expectations were pushed lower in the final August reading.
  • The long-term 5-10Y measure was confirmed to have held sideways at 2.9% (initially 3.0%) whilst the 1Y measure saw a larger than first thought slowdown from 5.2% to 4.8% (initially 5.0%).
  • The release should add some support that surveyed measures of inflation expectations have stabilised/dipped but it comes against market-based measures seeing a notable drift higher since mid-July with both the 5Y breakeven and 5Y5Y measures up some 20-30bps from early July levels at 2.79% and 2.40% respectively, having previously fallen to pre-taper levels.
  • Market reaction was however distorted by Powell's speech hitting at the same time.


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