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U.Mich Inflation Expectations Firm, LR Further Into Recent Range

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  • 5-10Y inflation expectations surprisingly ticked up a tenth in the preliminary Nov print to leave them more firmly in the 2.9-3.1% range.
  • It has been in that range every month since Jul’21 barring a surprise dip to 2.7% in Sep.
  • Short-term expectations 1Y out meanwhile also increased a tenth to 5.1% as expected, remaining off highs but further confirmation of a bucking of the prior downward trend.
  • The survey period for the preliminary print started Oct 26 and closed Nov 9, the day before yesterday’s lower than expected CPI.
  • Despite sentiment also sliding (from 59.9 to 54.7 vs 59.5 expected), there has been little reaction with the US out on Veterans Day, BBDXY largely unchanged.

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  • 5-10Y inflation expectations surprisingly ticked up a tenth in the preliminary Nov print to leave them more firmly in the 2.9-3.1% range.
  • It has been in that range every month since Jul’21 barring a surprise dip to 2.7% in Sep.
  • Short-term expectations 1Y out meanwhile also increased a tenth to 5.1% as expected, remaining off highs but further confirmation of a bucking of the prior downward trend.
  • The survey period for the preliminary print started Oct 26 and closed Nov 9, the day before yesterday’s lower than expected CPI.
  • Despite sentiment also sliding (from 59.9 to 54.7 vs 59.5 expected), there has been little reaction with the US out on Veterans Day, BBDXY largely unchanged.