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U.Mich Inflation: Preliminary vs Final Measure Differences

  • Further to our earlier bullet, even though for a later month, the 5-10Y U.Mich inflation expectation component followed the uptick in the NY Fed series with the larger than expected rise to 2.9% (cons 2.8%).
  • Note that recent preliminary prints have turned seen an initial move revised smaller but that wasn't the case last month, and in the past three months have tended to only be corrected by 0.1pt, increasing the chance that this is a 'genuine' move higher in long-term inflation expectations.

5-10Y inflation measure

May: 3.0%

June: 3.3% prelim, 3.1% final – initial rise revised smaller

July: 2.8% prelim, 2.9% final – initial drop revised smaller

Aug: 3.0% prelim, 2.9% final – initial rise revised smaller

Sep: 2.8% prelim, 2.7% final – initial drop revised larger

Oct: 2.9% prelim

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