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U.Mich Survey Takes Edge Of PCE Beat, Still Close To 25bp Hike Priced For July FOMC

STIR
  • Lower-than-expected U.Mich 1Y inflation expectations and the realised revision for the 5-10Y figure has taken the edge off the earlier jump in Fed pricing after stronger than expected core PCE inflation (including non-housing services), durable goods and real consumer spending.
  • FOMC-dated OIS is circa 1bp lower for the June decision with a still solid +14bp priced, whilst terminal pricing for the July meeting is 2bps off post-0830ET data highs with a cumulative +24bp priced.
  • Beyond, there is only 34bp of cuts prices from the peak to year-end, leaving a Dec’23 rate just 11bps lower than the current effective rate of 5.08% - see further cumulative changes in the table below.

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