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U.S. Data Has Modest Dovish Impact On EUR & GBP STIRs

STIR

The modest dovish move seen in EUR & GBP STIRs is largely a function of cross-market spill over in the wake of the U.S. data, with little in the way of local headline flow seen.

  • That leaves just under 70bp of '24 ECB cuts priced into the ECB-dated OIS strip, while ~44bp of '24 cuts are showing in the BoE equivalent.
  • CPI data headlines the European data calendar next week, with several rounds of ECB-speak and final manufacturing PMIs also due.
  • Final PMI readings headline a relatively limited UK economic release calendar next week.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.693-21.6
Jul-243.603-30.6
Sep-243.438-47.1
Oct-243.356-55.3
Dec-243.217-69.2
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.201+0.1
Jun-245.114-8.6
Aug-244.994-20.6
Sep-244.930-27.0
Nov-244.830-37.0
Dec-244.761-43.9
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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