April 26, 2024 14:34 GMT
U.S. Data Has Modest Dovish Impact On EUR & GBP STIRs
STIR
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The modest dovish move seen in EUR & GBP STIRs is largely a function of cross-market spill over in the wake of the U.S. data, with little in the way of local headline flow seen.
- That leaves just under 70bp of '24 ECB cuts priced into the ECB-dated OIS strip, while ~44bp of '24 cuts are showing in the BoE equivalent.
- CPI data headlines the European data calendar next week, with several rounds of ECB-speak and final manufacturing PMIs also due.
- Final PMI readings headline a relatively limited UK economic release calendar next week.
| ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-24 | 3.693 | -21.6 |
| Jul-24 | 3.603 | -30.6 |
| Sep-24 | 3.438 | -47.1 |
| Oct-24 | 3.356 | -55.3 |
| Dec-24 | 3.217 | -69.2 |
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| May-24 | 5.201 | +0.1 |
| Jun-24 | 5.114 | -8.6 |
| Aug-24 | 4.994 | -20.6 |
| Sep-24 | 4.930 | -27.0 |
| Nov-24 | 4.830 | -37.0 |
| Dec-24 | 4.761 | -43.9 |
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