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U.S. Data Leans Positive On Continued Recovery (And Inflation)

DATA REACT

U.S. unrounded core PCE M/M prices 0.1pp higher than expected in April at +0.7% vs 0.6% (though unrounded was 0.664% so not a huge beat), Y/Y 0.2pp higher than expected at 3.1% and 0.1pp upward revision to Mar.

  • Personal income beats (though downward revision to March); personal spending in line (with upward revision).
  • Meanwhile Wholesale Inventories +0.8% M/M beats expectations (of 0.7%), retail inventories on the weak side (-1.6% vs -1.2% exp). And advance goods trade balance shows a slightly smaller deficit than expected (-85.2B vs -92.0B survey), first time the gap narrowed this year.
  • Mixed data but largely leans positive in terms of the recovery in April - and core prices provide a little more ammo for inflation hawks.
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