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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Westminster remains abuzz with speculation on a potential U-turn by the gov't on the September 23 'fiscal event', following Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng's leaving a meeting of G20 finance ministers in Washington, D.C., early. The Chancellor is due to land in the UK within the hour, and with speculation turning to whether talks will take place between he and PM Liz Truss in Downing Street, or if Truss will announce a reversal before he reaches Westminster. There is no signal of timings for any potential announcement today.
- Political betting markets are trending towards an earlier and earlier exit from No.10 for Truss, no matter her policy changes. In the last 24 hours, the implied probability of Truss leaving office in 2022 has risen from 14.3% to 27.0% according to data from Smarkets.
- Next year (2023) remains the most likely year of her exit according to bettors, standing at 51.8%. The implied probability of Truss reaching 2024 (the year of the next scheduled election) is 13.5% while the prospect of her reaching 2025 in office (i.e. winning the next election) is given just a 4.2% chance by bettors.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of When Liz Truss Will Be Replaced As PM, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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