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MNI China Press Digest July 26: Deposit Rates, Fiscal, PBOC

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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY358.05 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

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UBS Above Consensus For Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • UBS sees core CPI at 0.37% M/M in Nov (cons median 0.3, average skewed lower), “reflect[ing] a return to more normal readings in some of the core non-rent services components that were weak in October (airfares, lodging away from home, physician services, education services, and recreation services) as well as a pop-up in CPI used vehicle prices”
  • “We expect another solid increase in owners' equivalent rent (OER) in 40bp to 45bp range. Rents continue to be the primary driver of CPI inflation.”
  • “We see two-sided risks to our projection from the core non-rent services prices that were unusually weak last month.”
  • Referring to large uncertainty: they “would not be surprised to see the core CPI increase anywhere from 23bp to 48bp”
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