Free Trial

UBS Above Consensus For Core CPI

  • UBS sees core CPI at 0.37% M/M in Nov (cons median 0.3, average skewed lower), “reflect[ing] a return to more normal readings in some of the core non-rent services components that were weak in October (airfares, lodging away from home, physician services, education services, and recreation services) as well as a pop-up in CPI used vehicle prices”
  • “We expect another solid increase in owners' equivalent rent (OER) in 40bp to 45bp range. Rents continue to be the primary driver of CPI inflation.”
  • “We see two-sided risks to our projection from the core non-rent services prices that were unusually weak last month.”
  • Referring to large uncertainty: they “would not be surprised to see the core CPI increase anywhere from 23bp to 48bp”

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.