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STIR: UBS Continue To Recommend Receiving Dec '25 ECB OIS

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

UBS continue to recommend receiving December ’25 ECB-dated OIS, looking for another ~10bp in the trade.

  • They note that “even on current market pricing of a deposit rate around 1.80% by the end of 2025, real policy rates will still be well above pre-pandemic averages.”
  • They then go on to highlight several dovish risks underscoring their view, including U.S. tariffs on Chinese or EU imports, the ECB indicator for negotiated wages pointing to slower wage growth by year-end and the ECB’s last corporate survey suggesting a relatively weak employment outlook.
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UBS continue to recommend receiving December ’25 ECB-dated OIS, looking for another ~10bp in the trade.

  • They note that “even on current market pricing of a deposit rate around 1.80% by the end of 2025, real policy rates will still be well above pre-pandemic averages.”
  • They then go on to highlight several dovish risks underscoring their view, including U.S. tariffs on Chinese or EU imports, the ECB indicator for negotiated wages pointing to slower wage growth by year-end and the ECB’s last corporate survey suggesting a relatively weak employment outlook.