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Free AccessUBS Cuts Oil Price Forecasts on "Looser Balances"
UBS has cut its 4Q23 and 2024 oil price forecasts to “to reflect looser market balances as US supply continues to surprise to the upside while we see the recently announced OPEC+ additional cuts as likely to be limited.”
- The bank cut its Brent forecast by $10/bbl to $82/bbl for 4Q23 - it brings down its 2023 average price to $82/bbl from $84/bbl.
- UBS cut its 2024 price forecast by $5/bbl to $82/bbl on average. It made a larger cut to 1H24: by $11/bbl to $79/bbl for 1Q24 and $6/bbl to $84/bbl for 2Q24.
- “We expect oil prices to rebound from current levels as we continue to expect the oil market to return to a large deficit” as oil demand seasonally returns, and non-OPEC supply growth slows.
- “The two key downside risks to our forecasts are further US supply upside and weaker oil demand.” UBS said, risk factors that bring the potential of $65-70/bbl Brent into sight and increases the probability of OPEC+ action.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.