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UBS Eye Fastest Core CPI Since May

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • UBS project core CPI at 0.34% M/M for the fastest increase since May, with their economists overriding their nowcast of 0.16% M/M.
  • It compares to a median analyst estimate of 0.3% but one that's skewed towards a 0.2 with an average response of 0.25%.
  • Their forecast “includes a smaller decline in non-transportation core goods prices, which in November fell by an amount equal to their largest decline in at least 25 years.”
  • “On the services side we expect OER and tenants' rent will see another strong increase roughly in line their averages over the past six months.”
  • “Core services excluding rents have slowed solidly in recent months and we have been surprised by the degree of easing in recreational services and education and communication services in the past two months. We expect some pick up in these components and in core non-rent services more broadly with weekly data suggesting higher prices for airfares and lodging away from home.”
  • They "would not be surprised" to see core CPI between 0.24%-0.39% M/M, with their forecast "toward the higher side of this range" with risks "tilted slightly toward the downside with the recent weakness in core non-transportation goods and some core non-rent services possibly proving persistent than we have accounted for in this month's projection.”
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