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UBS Eyes Rates Above 5% By Feb FOMC

FED

UBS analysts have upped their expectations for Fed hiking: their December hike forecast moves to 75bp from 50bp, and February to 50bp vs a pause previously. Including the expected November 75bp hike, that would bring the terminal rate to 5.00-5.25%.

  • They'd previously seen rates peaking at 4.25-4.50% at end-2022. They've also pushed out their expectations for the start of rate cuts, though it's unclear what their new baseline is (they had previously seen cuts starting in H2 2023).
  • MNI is pencilling in a similar rate path to February as UBS's new forecasts given the September inflation reading, and the sequence of data releases meaning a Fed funds rate above 5% is looking more likely (more here).
  • We expect more analysts to adopt 75bp hike expectations for December, with the main debate for February becoming not whether the Fed pauses, but whether they slow to 25bp or just 50bp.
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