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UBS Increases Brent Year End Forecast to 95$/bbl

OIL
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UBS has increased their year end Brent price forecast from 90$/bbl to 95$/bbl amid solid demand and with OPEC+ production close to a two year low. The WTI year end forecast was increased by 6$/bbl to $91/bbl with demand set to rise to a record according to a note on 16 August.

  • Oil demand is set to breach 103mb/d in August for the first time.
  • The oil market is tightening up due to Saudi Arabia and Russia’s production cuts and is expected to be under-supplied by 2mb/d in August and more than 1.5mb/d in September.
  • Despite weak Chinese economic activity, data from tanker trackers suggest that waterborne crude imports in China have been very strong so far in August.
  • UBS doesn’t expect a sustained move above 100$/bbl over next 12 months as that would likely lead to US supply growth and hurt demand growth in 2024.
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UBS has increased their year end Brent price forecast from 90$/bbl to 95$/bbl amid solid demand and with OPEC+ production close to a two year low. The WTI year end forecast was increased by 6$/bbl to $91/bbl with demand set to rise to a record according to a note on 16 August.

  • Oil demand is set to breach 103mb/d in August for the first time.
  • The oil market is tightening up due to Saudi Arabia and Russia’s production cuts and is expected to be under-supplied by 2mb/d in August and more than 1.5mb/d in September.
  • Despite weak Chinese economic activity, data from tanker trackers suggest that waterborne crude imports in China have been very strong so far in August.
  • UBS doesn’t expect a sustained move above 100$/bbl over next 12 months as that would likely lead to US supply growth and hurt demand growth in 2024.