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UBS Lowered Year-End Brent Forecast To $90/bbl

OIL

UBS lowered its Brent crude forecasts for December by $5/bbl to $90/bbl given higher-than-expected supply despite resilient demand, it said in a note.

  • The bank also cut its September forecast to $85/bbl, down by $5/bbl.
  • Higher crude oil supply from Russia, the US, Iran and Venezuela has weighed on the bank’s forecast.
  • Global visible oil inventories did not fall in the first four months of this year because supply growth was solid, the bank said.
  • Strong demand growth from China, India and the Middle East has offset weak consumption from OECD countries.
  • UBS retains the view that the oil market has likely shifted into a deficit in May, which is expected to widen in the coming months.
  • The bank’s year-end forecast remains rather bullish. Goldman forecasts Brent prices to reach $86/bbl and JP Morgan recently lowered its year-end forecast to $81/bbl. The latest Barclays forecast remains the most bullish at $95/bbl for December.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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