MNI BRIEF: Japan Oct Real Wages Unchanged Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: BOC Cutting To 3% Next Year, Ex Governor Dodge Says

MNI BRIEF: Output Gap Shut, Wage Growth Too Fast - BOE Greene

BRIEF: EU-Mercosur Deal In Final Negotiations - EC

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, Dec 5

MNI BRIEF: China Construction Output Slows In November

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -30 BCF TO 3,937 BCF NOV 29 WK

MNI: CANADIAN OCT TRADE BALANCE CAD -0.9 BILLION

MNI: US OCT TRADE GAP -$73.8B VS SEP -$83.8B

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

UBS: September 50/75bp Hike Debate In Focus At July Meeting

FED

UBS' Fed July meeting preview sees the FOMC hiking by 75bp, with the decline in UMichigan inflation expectations more than offset by strong June CPI. There's "some risk" of a 100bp hike, though another hawkish scenario is the FOMC adds a third 75bp hike in September.

  • In the press conference, Powell to reiterate that 75bp is a very large increase, and will not rule out a third one in September because "inflation is too hot" to signal a shift back to a 25bp vs 50bp debate.
  • Though Powell may state developments could unfold that puts a 25bp hike on the table for September, the debate at the moment is now between 50 and 75.
  • Statement will likely acknowledge that econ activity moderated in H1 but will still emphasize that the labor market is strong and inflation elevated.
  • Future action: 50bp hike in September, but pause after December and a turn toward rate cuts in 2023.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.