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UBS Target $91/bbl Brent by Mid-Year

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UBS is targeting a Brent crude price of $91/bbl by the middle of the year, viewing the current market undersupplied against rising demand it said in a client note.

  • Geopolitical risk premiums have tended not to last in the past if there are no actual supply disruptions the note said but added the recent events have created a muted response vs prior events.
  • UBS analysts said there was a low probability of the Strait of Hormuz being shut because Iran needs it to move its barrels.
  • They added that attacks on tankers, pipelines critical infrastructure remain possible.
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UBS is targeting a Brent crude price of $91/bbl by the middle of the year, viewing the current market undersupplied against rising demand it said in a client note.

  • Geopolitical risk premiums have tended not to last in the past if there are no actual supply disruptions the note said but added the recent events have created a muted response vs prior events.
  • UBS analysts said there was a low probability of the Strait of Hormuz being shut because Iran needs it to move its barrels.
  • They added that attacks on tankers, pipelines critical infrastructure remain possible.